Why We Make Mistakes

For years I've been fascinated with the concept of human decision making. I've enjoyed reading books that explore this concept. I'm also intrigued about the strategies that people use to justify their mistakes and the cognitive dissonance required to make your actual decisions jive with what you know is right.
Why We Make Mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average by Joseph Hallinan is my latest read on this subject. In the opening chapter of the book Hallinan describes a commercial airliner simply flying into the ground because they got too hung up on a small light that was burned out ans ignored the fact that the plane was slowly loosing altitude. I felt that this one simple metaphor described the rest of the book. We do lose focus of the things that are truly important. And all too frequently our focus was shifted by relatively trivial details.
Hallinan skillfully points out how uncommon common sense really is. But rather than just blame the decision maker he talks about how we can put ourselves into positions that will help to make better decisions. sometimes it takes a design difference so that, for instance, clockwise is off on all the knobs. Things like always putting the hot on the left and the cold on the right, etc. Sure it sounds like a simple design issue but he gave some frightening mortality statistic from an anesthesia machine that was clockwise for off on on drug and counter-clockwise for another.
Hallinan compared the airline industry to operating room. In the past few decades accident rates in the airline industry have dramatically dropped and there has been an increase in the operating rooms. Hallinan points to the main cause of this as the changes that have been made to the authority system in on and not in the other.
In the airline industry anybody the cockpit is virtually free of authority struggles. Many decisions are not based on rank or position. A 20 year old air traffic controller tells the pilot where to land and the pilot obeys and doesn't pretend that he knows better just because she's been doing flying since the controller was a kid. In the cockpit as well the co-pilot and even attendants are valuable resources and their input is encouraged.
Conversely, this authority system seems to be trending the other direction in the operating room. Doctors all too frequently are seen as unquestionable. Even in situations where nurses have spoken up to prevent the error Hallinan sights instances of flipped x-rays and the wrong limb being removed.
A few years ago my youngest daughter had to have a tooth pulled. We went to see the specialist with the x-ray from our dentist. She'd taken a fall on the driveway and one of her teeth was a starting to go gray. The x-ray seemed to confirm that the root on the graying tooth was dying. When we went to get her tooth pulled the nurse questioned the x-rays. She thought we we looking at it backwards. The dentist did not question her and called to have another x-ray taken just to be sure. She was absolutely right. In spite of the fact that one tooth was starting to turn gray it was the tooth on the other side that had the dead root. The dentist went ahead and pulled the dying tooth and the gray tooth eventually regained its color. Had that nurse not spoken up and, more importantly, had the dentist not accepted her advice Eve would have had to go back and have the correct tooth pulled later and they'd have had a very upset father on their hands. I'm very grateful to have had a dentist who was willing to admit that he could make mistakes and ultimate prevent them.
I enjoyed this book and would recommend it to anybody who is aware that they can make mistakes. I also think it should be force feed to anybody who thinks that they can't.

Too Many Books, Too Little Time

So last week Victoria looked at the stack of books that I had on loan from the library and sent me this flair on facebook. It's true. I typically don't read but about 50% of the books I check out. Lately life has been so busy that I haven't had time to blog much. Today I had to go rescue my youngest from the clinic at school. So rather than design communications equipment today I'm home with a sick kid. So I think I'll take this chance to catch up on some reading bloging and book reviews.

The Marilyn Manson Effect.

When I was a kid there was a big stink about a book that made it to the shelves of the library at school. Judy Bloom, who was famous for writing books targeted at fourth graders, had decided to branch out and write a book targeted at post-pubescent teens. Parents protested and got the book pulled off of the shelves. The local news and the local papers all interviewed the parents who felt victorious for getting this book banned. They felt like they had been handed an overwhelming victory.
So what was the end result? Well it wasn’t quite what they had expected. You see the local grocery store sold the same book in paperback and quite a few kids in school went out and bought it. I remember one boy reading a copy at recess that had clearly been handed down quite a few times. I’ll confess, I read it just to see what the fuss was all about. By protesting and getting the book banned from the school they freely gave the book more prime-time publicity than the publishing company would have ever been able to afford without it. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, however if the boycotts and protests had been deliberate stunts perpetrated by the publisher I doubt if they could have achieved better results. If those “concerned parents” had just put up with it the mediocre book would have faded into obscurity.

I’m not a big fan of Catcher in the Rye. I wouldn’t call the book a waste of time, but I just could never see what all the hoopla was all about. I read it a few years ago in a book group I was in. During the post reading discussion I was the only one that didn’t really care for the book. Although they wouldn’t come out an admit it, I have a sneaky suspicion that the same thing was happening again. Take away the controversy and you’re left with a mediocre piece of work that wouldn’t have made any impact on society.

I think the Harry Potter books have benefited quite a bit form this same phenomenon. Don’t get me wrong, I liked the books. I just don’t think they would have risen to such prominence quite so quickly without all the Bible-Thumpers complaining about witchcraft in our schools.

I read a comment on facebook were someone called this the “Marilyn Manson Effect”. If you take away all the controversy and hype Brian Warner would still be making slurpies at the 7-11. Have you listened to his “music”? He’s a talentless hack who’s only real skill is an ability to convince kids that he’s cool by upsetting their parents. Again if the parent hadn’t gotten so upset about him he would have had to go get a real job somewhere.

I’ve been tip-toeing around a current issue that has hit the news so as to not give it any publicity that it doesn’t deserve. My point is that sometimes it’s much better to just put up with something you disagree with. Protesting, boycotting and getting all upset about it will just give it more attention than it deserves.

Free speech is intended to protect the controversial and even outrageous word; and not just comforting platitudes too mundane to need protection.
Colin Powell

Hockey Night

“Yeah I know how to play hockey. Everybody gets a stick and they have to hit this thing the net that looks like a checker only it’s bigger.”

“Look at that big building. Is that a skyscraper?”

“How do they make buildings that tall?”

“That building looks like a castle.”

“Look! There’s Jesus.”

“Why do we have to pay to park?”

“He’s playing that harmonica so people will put money in his bucket.”

“Are those girls with the shovels cheerleaders?”

“They look like they might be cold.”

“Where did you and Rachel sit last time you came?”

“That guy has funny hair.”

“Try to catch the parachute.”

“That big truck makes the ice all nice and smooth again and those girls pick up all the snow.”

“Why does that bird shoot flames out of its mouth?”

“But, Real thrashers don’t do that.”

“How come the bird doesn’t shoot flames when the other team scores?”

“That doesn’t seem fair.”

“Why do people drink beer?”

“How come we lost?”

“Why isn’t the drive thru open?”

“Yeah, I’m still awake. I was just resting.”

Just a few random comments from my daughter during our date. Our dentist is also the Thrasher’s team dentist. Last week Rachel had an appointment and he was not going to be able to use his choice seats to the game so he gave them to us. Rachel went with me last time so I took Eve. It was nice to have her all alone so she didn’t have to compete for attention from her parents. We had a great time. Thanks for the tickets, Brett.

Selfishness

For about the last month I’ve been troubled by this issue. It’s been popping its head into just about every aspect of life and I’ve been trying to figure out a pretty way to describe it for a blog post. Nothing profound has hit me just yet but I really feel a need to get this off of my chest.

I’m not sure what caused me to start thinking about this but I’ve really taken notice of how many of the problems that we face every single day are nothing more than just selfishness.

Last week I was driving somewhere with the family and a guy in a BMW was tailgating and zipping back and forth from lane to lane without signaling. His driving was really distracting. He would cut in front of people with only inches to spare and it forced everybody around him to have to be in high alert so that there wasn’t an accident. After about three miles of watching this guy we pulled up to a light and he was only three cars ahead of us. His selfish, reckless behavior had profited him maybe 50 feet of road at the expense of annoying everybody else around him.

This is just one simple example of how selfishness makes our lives more difficult but it caused me to start thinking of the hundreds of other issues that we must contend with daily we can blame completely on somebody’s selfishness.

How many divorces could have been avoided if either party had thought about the other more than they did themselves? Sadly in most situations selfishness reigns and the spouse’s feelings and needs are a distant second.

The current housing crisis is nothing more than thousands of people selfishly mortgaging a house that was far too much for them to afford.

Multi-level marketing is little more than just hoping that you get your payout before the house of cards fails. In the recruiting videos they focus on the few millionaires at the top of the pyramid and ignore the countless backs that the scheme is built upon.

We’re bailing out investment banks whose CEOs felt they were entitled to gold plated antique toilets and gold plated helicopters yet didn’t feel they had to return a viable product for their investors.

I’m very bothered by all the crap that’s marketed under false pretenses. I think in most cases the sellers of homeopathic, chiropractic and other alternative treatments know full well that what they are selling is just false hope and at best placebo. Yet it makes them richer so they continue. I know of one case where I’m sure the practitioner knows he’s a con artist, but continues to sell something that he personally does not believe is effective.

I personally believe that we are now fighting a war in Iraq that was more about establishing a legacy than it was about fighting terrorism. Had all personal ambitions and desire to clear a family name been shelved I wonder how differently the last several years have been. put selfishness aside, would things have been done differently? I think so.

On a much smaller scale I have a hard time even talking shop with some coworkers because they have such a desire to outdo the other person’s opinion that they frequently destroy any basis on fact just to be right. The focus quickly drifts away from finding the right answer to the question and is becomes all about saving face.

Years ago coworker and I once proposed a project to some folks at work. After vetting the idea for a couple days I realized that the idea had major flaws. I accepted this and went back to the drawing board. My co-sponsor however refused to admit defeat and even denied the existence of the flaws of our idea. His selfish desire to have his idea get accepted blinded him to the fact that if put into practice it would have adversely affected our customers. I wonder how many folks at much higher levels and with much more influence than my friend and I have forced their plan into company policy even knowing that it was inferior just based on their own selfish desire to have their plan enacted.

I don't have a plan to make the world more selfless. I've just found that by stepping back and analyzing my own motives perhaps I can lessen my selfish impacts.

Small Talk

As you may have noticed I haven’t been blogging nearly as much as I did a year or so ago. Well having to talk to a lawyer about something I posted has that effect. But the truth is I was loosing a little motivation to blog for months before then.
I don’t like talking about shallow subjects. I like talking about things that matter, things that interest me, topics that I'm concerned about and my person struggles. Predominantly these issues fall in the categories of things that other people are very opinionated about. I’ve been given the typical family party advice several times. “Don’t talk about religion politics or controversial subjects.” Well I’m not comfortable with that kind of small talk. If we’re not talking about things that really matter then why talk at all?
I blog about things that matter to me. This is a place for me to voice my concerns about things that may upset you if you disagree with my position. Please feel free to leave a comment no matter which side of the issue you may take. I'd much rather have an honest open disagreement on something that matters than be forced to agree on something like which actresses are gaining weight.

Current Reading List in No Particular Order.

This is my current reading list some of these I've started already, others I've just loaded to my mp3 player and others I've just picked up from the library.

Beyond Revenge: The Evolution of the Forgiveness Instinct
By Michael McCullough
I listened to a "Speaking of Faith" podcast with McCullough and felt I had to read his book, too.

Nauvoo Polygamy "... but we called it celestial marriage'
by George D. Smith
A continuation of my quest to understand early LDS history.

The anatomy of peace : resolving the heart of conflict
by Arbinger Institute
Recommended by some Facebook friends.

The book of general ignorance
by Mitchinson, John
Referenced on an episode of Skeptics Guide to the Universe

The Count of Monte Cristo
by Dumas, Alexandre
Saw the movie last week and really enjoyed it. Thought it was about time I actually read the book,too.

Death from the skies! : these are the ways the world will end--
by Plait, Philip C.
The only "Dr. Phil" I trust.

A good dog : the story of Orson, who changed my life
by Katz, Jon
Recommended by some Facebook friends.

The greatest inventions of the past 2,000 years
by Brockman, John
Just looked like a cool read.

Intelligent thought : science versus the intelligent design movement
by Brockman, John
Recommended on an evolution blog that I frequent.

What are you optimistic about? : today's leading thinkers on why things
are good and getting better
by Brockman, John
Just another book by Brockman that looked interesting.

What is your dangerous idea? : today's leading thinkers on the
unthinkable
by Brockman, John
ditto.

Lies, damned lies, and science : how to sort through the noise around
global warming, the latest health claims, and other scientific
controversies
by Seethaler, Sherry
I love reading about the intersection of science and politics.

Why we make mistakes: How We Look Without Seeing, Forget Things in
Seconds, and Are All Pretty Sure We Are Way Above Average
by Hallinan, Joseph T.
This book seemed to fall in line with a few other books that I've read in the last year or so.

The Poisonwood Bible

When Victoria recommended that I read a book that her book group was reading I confess to being a little hesitant. You see the book is on Oprah’s suggested reading list. Of the few books that I’ve read from the Oprah list I wouldn’t recommend any of them. But the more I heard Victoria sing the praises of The Poisonwood Bible by Barbara Kingsolver I decided to read it based on her glowing reviews and ignore Oprah all together. I’m very glad that I did.

The Poisonwood Bible is the story of a mother and her four daughters who are carted off to the Belgian Congo in the early 60s by the fanatical patriarch of the family. The story has a very interesting perspective. Most books are written either in first or third person. Kingsolver used a combination. The story is told first person but the narrator rotates pretty evenly among the five women in story. I found this approach to be very engaging. You grew to understand the motives and feelings of each of the characters much better than had the story been told in third person or from just one of the perspectives. Even with characters that I didn’t really identify I somewhat felt that I could understand why they reacted the way they did because of the authors unique approach.

The different perspective also allows the story to explore several different themes concurrently. Only to touch on a few: the loss of faith in the face of tragedy, overcoming handicaps, poverty v. wealth, ethnocentrism, the appeal of communism in the third world, the role of women, etc. Each of these themes and more are covered in great detail.

The story jumped around a bunch in time. Multiple flashbacks and back histories made the story unfold not quite chronologically. You had to pay attention to keep up. In the hands of a lesser author the multiple flashbacks would have been very awkward. However, Kingsolver made the transitions beautifully and told the story with much more feeling than a truly linear timeline would have given.

She did not waste a sing word in this entire book. Every sentence, ever word and even the punctuation is clearly thought out and serves a role. Whether it is a metaphor to foreshadow future events, a misplaced idiom, or just a quick poem that leads you to better understand the mind of one of the characters, every mark in the book serves a purpose.

Her brilliant use of several different languages to tell the story also gives a richness and a depth to the people of the Congo. Much is made about the fact that several different meanings can be inferred by just slight differences in pronunciation of the Congolese words. These differences in meaning exaggerate the ultimate futility of the father’s quest to bring Jesus to the savages and also add a new determination to a handicapped child whose nickname has an insulting and also a noble interpretation.

The family is from Bethlehem, Georgia. Even that detail was not casually assigned. The metaphor of a going to Africa and bringing “Christ out of Bethlehem” was brilliant. I live about 20 miles from Bethlehem Georgia. The historical references to places and events in Georgia we appealing to me. Being personally familiar them it created an interesting juxtaposition with the much more foreign descriptions of Africa.

The book is historical fiction. None of the main characters actually existed. However the political events in Africa of the 60s are described perfectly. If only for the political history this book is well worth the read. But it is so much more than just a history book.

I’ve heard of people dismissing this book out of hand simply because some of the characters are sympathetic to Communism. To them I encourage to put your presuppositions aside as I did. Read the book. Yes there are some comments in the book that are sympathetic to Communism. Kingsolver brilliantly explains why the promises on Communism would appeal to a people without a penny in their pocket, and even look on pockets themselves as a luxury.

Each of the five women who tell this story turns out dramatically different. Some I identified with and others I didn’t but Kingsolver’s style helped me understand each one. I will not forget the lessons I’ve learned and the fundamental questions that this book has caused me to re-ask myself.

Blackwater

The latest book I've finished reading is Blackwater: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army by Jeremy Scahill.
In the last decade the U.S. has increasingly been using private contractors to assist in its efforts to wage war. The spin that is given from Washington is that the contractors are just "providing security" and not actually involved in combat. Scahill clearly documents that these "contractors" are indeed involved in combat and in some cases even commanding enlisted members of the U.S. military.
The most disturbing fact about Blackwater is that they believe themselves to be above any law. They are quick to point out that as contractors they are not subject to the military justice system. They symultaniously claim that since the Pentagon counts them among the U.S total force that makes them immune from any civilian prosecution in the counties they operate, including the U.S.. So who do they answer too? They see themselves as above any laws besides their own company policies.
Scahill goes in depth into the leadership and history of Blackwater. The U.S. has officially claimed that the war in Iraq is a war against terrorism and not a religous war. This point seems to have escaped the leadership of Blackwater. Many of them are members of the Knights of Malta who still believe that the crusades are continuing and they claim to be gaurdians of the Christian hold lands in the Middle East.
The book was very scary. I found the book to be very well researched and I agree with most of the conclusions he has reached.
A few criticisms of the book:
Scahill's style is a little polarizing. He uses politically charged buzz words like "neo-con" frequently. That's surely his right, however his bias probably causes some folks who would have otherwise read it to put it down. A few of Scahill's conclusions were based on circumstaial evidence. He discloses this openly, but I question the ethics of including the conclusions at all without direct evidence.
I actually found much of the book to be rather repetative. Scahill seemed to have written several paragraphs to describe certian organizations, like the Knights of Malta and then inserted the same paragraphs all throughout the book whenever those organizations were mentioned. The result was that each chapter read as if they were separate stand alone articles and not one continuous book.
I'd recommend this book to anyone who is concerned about the details of how the U.S. is fighting the war on terror. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the the U.S. presence in Iraq. This book will have you seriously questioning the decision to fight this war with civilian mercinaries.

Bringing the Dream Home

So the kids are all excited about having Martin Luther King's birthday off tomorrow. Eve was bouncing around the house and wanted to get some brown frosting so we could make cookies that look like Dr. King. I was a little concerned that she was more excited about having the day off from school and the prospect of cookies than she was Dr. King's accomplishments. So I asked her, "Eve, do you remember what Dr. King did for us." She didn't hesitate to answer and her response really brought it down to earth and convinced me that she really understood his accomplishments, "He changed the laws and made it so Selena and I could sit together."

Thank you Dr. King for making this picture and thousands more like it possible.